For days, computer models have forecast extreme snow amounts this weekend for the D.C. area. Given the consistency of the models and a weather pattern conducive for a blockbuster storm, human forecasters are now confident enough to predict excessive snow amounts as well.
[Blizzard watch: Severe snowstorm likely Friday through Sunday[1]]
Generally, the amounts forecast by people are lower than those forecast by the computer. This is likely because human forecasters understand the climatology and storm history of the region and know how improbable the computer simulations are. So, bear in mind, the human forecasts may be a little conservative…
Forecasters
Capital Weather Gang: 12-25 inches
Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast for January 22-24. First call.
NBC4: 10-18″
FOX5: 1 foot or more
ABC7: 1 to 2 feet
WUSA9: 1 to 2 feet
National Weather Service: 18-24 inches (through 7 p.m. Saturday, additional snow possible after)
Snow forecast from National Weather Service
Weather.com: 12-24 inches
Weather.com snowfall forecast (Weather.com)
Dave Tolleris (WxRisk on Facebook[2]): 12-24 inches
Forecast from WxRisk (Dave Tolleris)
AccuWeather.com: 6-24 inches
Snowfall forecast from AccuWeather.com
Models forecasts
European model: 18-22 inches
European model snowfall forecast. (WeatherBell.com)
GFS: 24-30 inches or more
All GFS ensemble members: Range of 1-3 feet
GFS ensemble mean: 18-24 inches
GFS Ensemble mean snow forecast (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Canadian: 18-27 inches
Canadian model snow total forecast (WeatherBell.com)
NAM model: 18-24 inches through 1 a.m. Sunday
NAM model snow total through 1 a.m. Sunday morning (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Read more from the Capital Weather Gang
How to prepare for this weekend's high-impact winter storm[3]
The key characteristics of Washington's biggest snowstorms[4]
Everything you need to know about snow in Washington, D.C.[5]
References
- ^ Blizzard watch: Severe snowstorm likely Friday through Sunday (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ WxRisk on Facebook (www.facebook.com)
- ^ How to prepare for this weekend's high-impact winter storm (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ The key characteristics of Washington's biggest snowstorms (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ Everything you need to know about snow in Washington, D.C. (www.washingtonpost.com)
