How much snow are local forecasters and computer models predicting?

A snowstorm headed toward Washington, D.C, and the Mid-Atlantic is expected to last 36 hours between Friday and Sunday. Capital Weather Gang's Angela Fritz has your forecast and snow accumulation predictions. (Ashleigh Joplin/The Washington Post)

For days, computer models have forecast extreme snow amounts this weekend for the D.C. area.  Given the consistency of the models and a weather pattern conducive for a blockbuster storm, human forecasters are now confident enough to predict excessive snow amounts as well.

[Blizzard watch: Severe snowstorm likely Friday through Sunday^[1]]

Generally, the amounts forecast by people are lower than those forecast by the computer.  This is likely because human forecasters understand the climatology and storm history of the region and know how improbable the computer simulations are.  So, bear in mind, the human forecasts may be a little conservative…

Forecasters

Capital Weather Gang: 12-25 inches

Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast for January 22-24. First call.

NBC4: 10-18″ 

FOX5: 1 foot or more

ABC7: 1 to 2 feet

WUSA9: 1 to 2 feet

National Weather Service: 18-24 inches (through 7 p.m. Saturday, additional snow possible after)

Snow forecast from National Weather Service

Weather.com: 12-24 inches

Weather.com snowfall forecast (Weather.com)

Dave Tolleris (WxRisk on Facebook^[2]): 12-24 inches

Forecast from WxRisk (Dave Tolleris)

AccuWeather.com: 6-24 inches

Snowfall forecast from AccuWeather.com

Models forecasts

European model: 18-22 inches

European model snowfall forecast. (WeatherBell.com)

GFS: 24-30 inches or more

GFS model total snow forecast (StormVistaWxModels.com)

All GFS ensemble members: Range of 1-3 feet

GFS ensemble mean: 18-24 inches

GFS Ensemble mean snow forecast (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Canadian: 18-27 inches

Canadian model snow total forecast (WeatherBell.com)

NAM model: 18-24 inches through 1 a.m. Sunday

NAM model snow total through 1 a.m. Sunday morning (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Read more from the Capital Weather Gang

How to prepare for this weekend's high-impact winter storm^[3]

The key characteristics of Washington's biggest snowstorms^[4]

Everything you need to know about snow in Washington, D.C.^[5]

References

1. ^{^} Blizzard watch: Severe snowstorm likely Friday through Sunday (www.washingtonpost.com)
2. ^{^} WxRisk on Facebook (www.facebook.com)
3. ^{^} How to prepare for this weekend's high-impact winter storm (www.washingtonpost.com)
4. ^{^} The key characteristics of Washington's biggest snowstorms (www.washingtonpost.com)
5. ^{^} Everything you need to know about snow in Washington, D.C. (www.washingtonpost.com)

Related Posts To How much snow are local forecasters and computer models predicting?

How much snow are local forecasters and computer models predicting? 2016-01-20T15:38:00-08:00 Rating: 4.5 Posted by: elisrimu